Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins historic fourth term in Brazil, denying Trump a close ally

The 80-year-old leader defeated Bolsonaro with 51.76% of the vote in the country’s runoff election, in which affordability and the country’s relationship with the United States were prominent issues. The surprise victory for Lula comes after Bolsonaro emerged as the leading candidate in the country’s first-round election earlier this month.

Trump did not offer an official endorsement for Bolsonaro, 45, ahead of the election that saw Lula accuse the American government of intervening to help his opponent. The Rio de Janeiro senator and eldest son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro had touted his close relationship with the Trump administration.

Lula’s victory denies Trump a new partner in the Western Hemisphere, where the United States has shifted resources and attention with its boat strikes in the Caribbean, military intervention in Venezuela, and formation of the Shield of the Americas security umbrella over the past year. 

Trump endorsed candidates in other Latin American elections and openly favored governments in the hemisphere, actively involving himself in elections as he builds a stable of conservative leaders who are indebted to him.

Lula threw jabs at both Trump and Flávio Bolsonaro in a triumphant victory speech on Oct. 25.

"People went to vote because we convinced them it was important to preserve democracy," he said. "This country doesn’t accept being anybody’s colony."

Lula’s triumph over Bolsonaro interrupts a string of victories for right-wing candidates in Latin America that saw Trump acquire ideological allies across the region in Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Ecuador, Honduras and Peru.

"It shows that the left is not like a vanquished force. It's on the wrong end of the pendulum swing, but it's still a significant force in many of these countries," said Christopher Hernandez-Roy, the deputy director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

In the lead-up to the runoff election, the Bolsonaro family appeared to be on the verge of sweeping every office they ran for this year after four other members of the family ran for and won federal office. The family was hoping that a win for Flavio Bolsonaro would also help liberate Jair Bolsonaro, Trump’s longtime political ally who is now serving a 27-year-sentence under house arrest after a Brazilian court convicted him of an attempted coup.

Brazil’s Supreme Court convicted the elder Bolsonaro last year of plotting against Lula after losing the 2022 election. He is the first former president in Brazil to be convicted of such a crime.

Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede his election and said he intended to seek an annulment.

"There’s a lot that needs to be cleared up before Brazil simply accepts this foul play," Flávio Bolsonaro said during brief remarks at a news conference.

A justice on Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered voting hours to be extended in a last-minute decision that came after ballots were already being counted and some polling stations had closed.

Both candidates had asked for voting extensions before the order, which extended the voting time by two hours. Lula cited public transportation delays while Flávio Bolsonaro expressed concern that heavy rain and floods prevented voters from accessing polling stations in southern Brazil.

Lula accuses Trump of election interference, favoring Bolsonaro

Allegations from Lula that the Trump administration interfered in the race featured prominently ahead of the election. 

Lula refused to grant visas to two American diplomats who sought to visit the country in July over election meddling concerns and withheld diplomatic approval for Trump’s nominee for ambassador to Brazil. 

The State Department said the accusation was baseless. In a tit-for-tat move, it revoked the diplomatic visa of Brazil’s ambassador to the United States.

In an Oct. 7 letter to the State Department, a dozen Democratic lawmakers said they were concerned the U.S. was seeking to “torpedo the relationship” with Lula’s government to “manufacture this diplomatic crisis months away from elections in Brazil.”

Appearing at the United Nations, minutes before Trump was set to take the stage in September, Lula said his country would not let internal or external enemies of democracy thwart the will of the Brazilian people. 

A Lula campaign ad subsequently called Bolsonaro "Trump’s candidate" and accused the American president of wanting to “colonize Brazil” for its resources. Brazil’s intelligence agency also warned of the potential for a "critical level" of American election interference.

The accusations followed a months-long thaw in relations between the two leaders in 2025 that led to the easing of some tariffs on Brazil and the removal of sanctions on a Brazilian Supreme Court justice who oversaw the conviction of Jair Bolsonaro. The pair also met behind closed doors in May of this year at the White House.

Trump also hosted Flávio Bolsonaro in the Oval Office in May. The presidential candidate posted a photo of himself with Trump on social media. He told reporters he did not ask for Trump’s endorsement at the time.

The U.S. president said in early October that he’d been watching the matchup "very closely" and predicted it would be a close election but declined to go further.

He said again on Oct. 25, as voters were at the polls in a second round of voting, that he was monitoring the election and did not want to say who he was supporting.

An overt endorsement from Trump could have backfired, regional experts argued, and made it easier for Lula to pick up enough votes to win. A senior White House official described Bolsonaro ahead of the election as a fan and supporter of the president who was aligned with many of the policies on Trump’s agenda.

Neither the White House nor the State Department immediately responded to comment requests after Lula's win.

Prospects for economic thaw dim

The continuation of a Lula government could make it harder for Brazil to secure a reduction in tariffs on Brazilian imports, a fee that critics say is paid for by consumers. Most recently, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Brazilian products with some exceptions in July.

Last year Trump put a 50% tariff on Brazil that was related, in part, to Jair Bolsonaro’s trial and the perceived censorship of American social media companies in Brazil. He later removed tariffs on beef, coffee, and cocoa and other Brazilian agricultural products as he tried to bring down grocery prices in the United States.

Additional duties were dropped this year when the Supreme Court ruled them unconstitutional.

Trump has since used a different mechanism, an investigation into alleged unfair trade practices, to impose a new slate of tariffs. He separately acted in August to pause tariffs on all beef imports for 90 days, a move he said would primarily affect Argentina and Brazil.